Nature doesn't do "guarantees". Weather is unpredictable, crop yields vary, life ends. The world is chaotic and unpredictable.

And yet, people crave certainty: job security, "guaranteed" income in retirement, that insurance will pay if their house burns down.

Certainty is artificial. It does not exist in nature. We can try to make certainty through contracts and trust, but it's never a sure thing.

I always think of how artificial certainty is, whenever some group (protesters, a union, etc) makes some sort of demand: jobs, pensions, etc. "We want guaranteed pensions starting at 55". Nobody can make that promise. Investment returns vary.

Certainty may be possible at a sufficiently small scale, say, a gas station owner promising an employee they'll have a job for the next year. At the scale of the global financial markets, or the US political system, or the overall course of history? Not a chance.